shelter | changing lives through real estate

View Original

analysis: housing markets rally in deep (affluent) suburbs, remain challenged in cities

via Rockland/Westchester Journal News

By Mario Marroquin | Published October 5, 2020

Demand for single-family homes in the Lower Hudson Valley is favoring sellers in the deep suburbs and challenging sellers in high densities during the coronavirus pandemic.

Last quarter, a decline in listings and increased demand kept asking prices flat for single-family homes in Westchester and Putnam, and drove prices up in Rockland county during the second quarter of 2020.

But now market conditions seem to favor sellers in the rural parts of Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess.

A state ban halted in-person showings of real estate in late-March, but after the Hudson Valley region entered Phase 2 of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s reopening plan in early-June, home sellers in the deep suburbs of Westchester appear to have caught a second wind.

On the other hand, brokerage firm Houlihan Lawrence and the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors says home sales in the school districts of Mount Vernon, Yonkers, White Plains, Greenburgh, Port Chester, Peekskill and Croton-Harmon, to name a few, decreased in July, August and September of this year when compared to 2019.

Liz Numan, the president and CEO of Houlihan Lawrence, said "commute time to NYC is not necessarily as important as it once was," and that the more remote locations of the Hudson Valley have seen a resurgence in interest.

During the third quarter, 2,167 single family homes were sold in Westchester, a 12% improvement from 1,940 in 2019's same period Houlihan Lawrence said market conditions are favoring sellers and forcing fewer concession on pricing than last year.

The number of pending sales as of September 30 increased by 71% in Westchester overall according to the brokerage firm.

The school district of New Rochelle, which includes the area where Cuomo ordered a one-mile containment zone back in March, saw total home sales increase by 25% to 137 in the third quarter over 2019. Some believed the containment zone would hurt sales.

The median sale price in the school district also increased by 13% to $775,000, despite brokers and analysts anticipating a slow market at the start of the pandemic in April.

Cooperative and condominium sales in Westchester remain challenged and have decreased by 24% on a year-to-date basis according to Houlihan Lawrence.

Houlihan Lawrence said the housing markets in Putnam and Dutchess counties benefited from a wave of shoppers seeking isolation and social distancing.  

New York allowed in-person showings to resume in New York City in late-June,and the pause in that period that spanned the first and second quarters caused the number of sales to decline in the metropolitan region over the third quarter of 2019.  

At a glance

The median sale price for single family homes in the school districts of Bronxville, Edgemont, Scarsdale, Eastchester and Tuckahoe exceeded $1.35 million in the third quarter, a 7% increase from 2019. Pending sales within these school districts are concentrated in the $1.5 million to $4 million range.

Sales in Greater White Plains including Greenburgh and Valhalla decreased by 19% to 132 from July to September while the median sale price increased by 6% to $675,000.

Sales in the Pocantico Hills school district declined by 50% in the third quarter while the median sale price fell by 32% to $820,000.

The Harrison and Rye Neck school districts saw an increase in closed sales from July to September by 37% and 33% respectively.

Median sales price in Mamaroneck remained flat at $1.25 million while the Blind Brook school district saw an increase in median sale price of 26% to $1.1 million.

Suburbs rally in Westchester

“With buyers focused on the attributes of the home, and less on location, it is not surprising that Northern Westchester had the highest third quarter sales spike in the county and posted 50% more homes sold compared to the same period last year,” Numan said.

The president and CEO of Houlihan Lawrence says the suburbs north of White Plains are attracting unprecedented buyers. The number of closed home sales in the Chappaqua, Katonah-Lewisboro and Northern Salem school districts grew by at least 68% over the third quarter.

The only school district in Westchester north of White Plains where sales declined in the third quarter is Somers, where total sales declined by 15% to 56, but the median sales price in the school district grew by 29% to $656,000.

Closed sales in the Croton-Harmon school district are down 41% while the median sales price increased by 10% to $650,000.

West of the Hudson mostly flat

The trade group Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors said the markets in Rockland and Orange counties improved over the third quarter of 2019 but remained mostly flat on a year-to-date basis.

While the number of single-family homes sold for the quarter increased by 4.8% to 674, sales of condominiums, co-ops and 2-4 family homes decreased.

HGAR said listings at the end of September were 32% less than last year in Rockland County. The median sale price for single-family homes, condominiums and 2-4 family homes in Orange county increased by 15%, 11% and 20%, respectively.

Only two co-ops sold in Orange County. 

HGAR said 'interest rates remain at historic lows which contributes to affordability,' but that forecasting the span of the market rally is difficult due to uncertainty about the long-term economic recovery.

Putnam and Dutchess

Houlihan Lawrence reported the overall housing market in Putnam and Dutchess rallied during the third quarter of 2020.

The brokerage firm said:

  • Single-family home sales in Putnam County increased in all school districts except Lakeland and Mahopac where sales fell by 30% and 11% respectively.

  • While sales within the Putnam Valley school district improved by 26% over the third quarter of 2019 to 44, the median sale price in the school district fell by 10% to $327,750.

  • 50 condominiums sold in Putnam Valley in the third quarter – a 28% increase in sales on a year-to-date basis.

  • Sales in Poughkeepsie declined by 33% to 86 in the third quarter while the number sales within the city remained mostly flat at 39.