via Denver Business Journal

By Ashley Fahey & Ethan Nelson | Published on December 21, 2021

Despite a serious lack of inventory and a blistering sales pace, Denver doesn't rank anywhere close to the top of a recent Realtor.com forecast of the hottest real estate markets of 2022.

The Denver metro comes in at number 48 out of the nation's top 100 metros in terms of the predicted change in price and number of sales for next year – that's an 11% total increase, 6% for number of sales and 5% for home prices.

Denver's predicted increase is much less compared to other western markets, like Salt Lake City, Boise, Idaho and Spokane, Washington, which are all expected to see a combined increase of more than 20%, according to the Realtor.com analysis.

But even though Denver's projected sales increase is outpaced by other metros, local experts are still predicting a fast-paced year for the residential real estate market, considering a massive drop in inventory between October and November, the largest on record.

"With 2,248 active listings on the market and that number expecting to go down by the end of the month, 2022 could be a wild ride," said Andrew Abrams, chair of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors Market Trends Committee, in notes accompanying a recent report.

For the nation as a whole, after a 2021 that saw one of the wildest housing markets in memory, 2022 is shaping up to be nearly as competitive, but with perhaps slightly more inventory and slightly higher mortgage rates. The markets that'll see the biggest price gains and number of sales, though, could look a little different, according to an analysis by Realtor.com released earlier this month.

While big Sun Belt metros are expected to perform well as housing markets next year, they may have a less-frenzied 2022 as the temperature turns up in markets like Salt Lake City and Indianapolis.

Realtor.com's forecast used housing-market and economic data to estimate 2022 values across the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by population size. The company ranked markets by combined forecasted growth in home prices and sales.

Cities dispersed across the U.S. can be found in the top 30, although metro areas in the Midwest, in particular, can be found at the top of the list.

That's because, as economists at Realtor.com and other real estate firms are predicting, millennials and other homebuyers in 2022 will be putting a premium on affordability, especially after this past year's double-digit home-price appreciation and continued fierce competition for homes.

Home prices nationally are still expected to shoot up next year. There's some debate among forecasters by how much, but most agree it'll be less, or much less, than the 20% national year-over-year spikes posted in the past 12 months.

Home sales across the top 10 markets in Realtor.com's ranking are forecasted to grow by 11.6% year-over-year in 2022. Home prices in those markets are expected to increase, on average, 7.4%.

The Covid-19 pandemic, still a dominant force in the economy, has spurred new trends for how people live and work. Among them is remote work, which has allowed some buyers to look at new, perhaps more far-flung, real estate markets.

“This year’s list spans a variety of geographic hotspots, reflecting how pandemic trends like the rise in remote work are enabling many homebuyers to explore new areas where their budgets stretch further," said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist, in a statement. "The top 10 markets share a number of commonalities that are driving demand from millennial remote workers to retirees alike, including those from major coastal metros."