connecticut housing market: prices, trends, forecast 2024
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By Marco Santarelli | Published on February 2, 2024
Current Connecticut Housing Market Trends
How is the housing market doing currently? According to the data from Redfin, home prices in Connecticut experienced a substantial uptick, rising by 13.0% compared to the previous year. The median price reached $380,400, indicating a robust market with high demand and competitive pricing. However, these price increases may pose challenges for prospective buyers looking for affordability.
Decline in Homes Sold
Despite the surge in prices, the number of homes sold saw a 9.63% year-over-year decrease. December 2023 witnessed 3,040 homes changing hands, down from 3,364 in December the previous year. The median days on the market decreased to 39 days, reflecting a faster pace of transactions.
Inventory Challenges
Meeting buyer demand proved to be a significant challenge in December 2023. The number of homes available for sale in Connecticut decreased by 29.1% year over year, leaving 6,547 homes on the market. Newly listed homes were also down by 31.8% compared to the previous year, with 1,200 new listings.
Competitive Market Dynamics
The Connecticut housing market exhibited high levels of competitiveness. A striking 56.2% of homes sold above the list price in December 2023, showing a 9.9% increase from the previous year. Conversely, the percentage of homes with price drops rose to 15.2%, up from 12.0% in December last year. The sale-to-list price ratio reached 101.9%, up by 1.7% points.
Top 10 Metros with Growing Sales Prices
Several Connecticut metros experienced notable growth in sales prices. The top 10 metros with the fastest-growing sales prices include:
Greenwich, CT: 52.1%
Torrington, CT: 35.0%
Stamford, CT: 29.4%
New Haven, CT: 24.6%
Meriden, CT: 23.9%
Newington, CT: 23.6%
East Haven, CT: 21.8%
West Haven, CT: 21.7%
Wethersfield, CT: 21.2%
Norwalk, CT: 14.4%
Are Home Prices Dropping?
No, home prices in Connecticut are not dropping. On the contrary, they experienced a substantial 13.0% increase in December 2023 compared to the previous year, indicating a robust and appreciating market.
There is no indication of an imminent housing market crash based on the current data. However, market dynamics can change, and it's essential to stay informed about economic factors that might influence the real estate landscape.
Connecticut Housing Market Forecast 2024
Zillow has been a reliable source for real estate insights, and its data provides a valuable lens into the current dynamics of the Connecticut housing market. Let's delve into the key metrics shaping the forecast for 2024, shedding light on the intricacies of this ever-evolving landscape.
Average Home Value:
The average home value in Connecticut stands at $377,247, reflecting a significant 10.3% increase over the past year. This surge not only indicates the resilience of the market but also hints at a robust demand for residential properties in the state. Such positive trends can be instrumental for homeowners and investors alike.
Days on Market:
One noteworthy aspect of the Connecticut housing market is the swift pace at which homes move from listing to pending status. On average, a property in Connecticut goes to pending in just around 10 days, underscoring the high demand and competitive nature of the market.
Inventory Metrics (As of December 31, 2023):
For Sale Inventory: The market boasts 5,906 properties available for sale, offering a diverse range of options for prospective buyers.
New Listings: A total of 2,299 new listings were added to the market in December 2023, showcasing a dynamic and active real estate landscape.
Sale Price Metrics (As of November 30, 2023):
Median Sale to List Ratio: As of November 2023, the median sale to list ratio stands at 1.020, indicating a healthy balance between listing prices and actual sale prices.
Median Sale Price: The median sale price in Connecticut is $354,667, reflecting the overall value of properties sold in the market.
Median List Price: The median list price, as of December 31, 2023, is $398,300, providing valuable insights for both buyers and sellers in setting realistic expectations.
Market Dynamics (As of November 30, 2023):
Percent of Sales Over List Price: A substantial 62.0% of sales in November 2023 were conducted over the list price, emphasizing the competitive nature of the market.
Percent of Sales Under List Price: Approximately 27.8% of sales occurred under the list price, showcasing a varied spectrum of pricing strategies and negotiation dynamics.
Regional Housing Market Forecast for Key Connecticut Areas
As we narrow our focus to specific regions within Connecticut, the forecast unveils intriguing insights into the housing market dynamics of key areas such as Hartford, Bridgeport, New Haven, Norwich, and Torrington. The forecast for these key Connecticut regions points towards a seller's market.
With Housing Price Index (HPI) projections showing positive growth, sellers are likely to have the upper hand in negotiations, making it crucial for buyers to approach transactions strategically. Based on the provided data, there is no indication of an imminent housing market crash. The positive Housing Price Index (HPI) projections suggest a stable and growing market, providing reassurance to both buyers and sellers.
Hartford, CT:
In the metropolitan statistical area (msa) of Hartford, Connecticut, the forecast indicates a steady growth trajectory. From January 31, 2024, to December 31, 2024, the anticipated increase in the Housing Price Index (HPI) is 4.8%. This growth suggests a seller's market, where demand is expected to outpace supply, potentially leading to competitive bidding scenarios and higher property values.
Bridgeport, CT:
Similarly, in Bridgeport, the HPI is projected to rise by 3.6% by the end of 2024. While slightly lower than Hartford, this still indicates a seller-friendly market, with the potential for increased property values. Buyers should be prepared for competitive conditions and strategic decision-making.
New Haven, CT:
New Haven presents a promising outlook with an expected HPI growth of 5% by December 31, 2024. This robust appreciation points towards a seller's market, emphasizing the importance of a well-thought-out approach for buyers navigating this competitive landscape.
Norwich, CT:
In Norwich, the HPI is forecasted to increase by 5.1%, reaffirming the seller's market trend. The region is likely to see heightened demand, potentially leading to quicker property sales and a competitive environment favoring sellers.
Torrington, CT:
Torrington follows a similar pattern with an anticipated HPI growth of 5.2%. This suggests that the market in Torrington favors sellers, presenting opportunities for property value appreciation.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Connecticut?
Connecticut's housing market has been performing strongly in recent years, but with the current state of the economy and the ongoing pandemic, some are wondering if a crash is on the horizon. While no one can predict the future with certainty, here are some factors to consider when evaluating the likelihood of a housing market crash in Connecticut.
There is undoubtedly a slowdown in the pace of home sales in the Connecticut housing market, but it is more of a return to normalcy. This is neither a crash nor a bubble; housing demand is still present. The slowdown is ideal for buyers who are weary of being outbid in a hot Connecticut real estate market or who are experiencing buyer fatigue.
When there is a boom in the housing market, it is in part generated by an increase in job growth and a fall in the unemployment rate. The relationship between the economy and the housing market cannot be severed. The strength of the economy and the rate of job growth both have an impact on the purchasing power of prospective homeowners. Connecticut ranks among the top five wealthiest states in the country due to the number of residents who travel to well-paying jobs in New York City and the number of significant corporations with headquarters in the state.
Connecticut also has the fourth-highest percentage of college-educated residents (about 35.6%) and is home to Yale University, which U.S. News & World Reports rated third in the nation in 2015. According to Connecticut State Comptroller, the labor market remains strong. Nationally, there are nearly two job openings for every unemployed worker. Connecticut added 1,600 jobs in May and has now recovered 83% of the jobs lost during the pandemic, including 86% of private sector jobs.
Three sectors — construction, professional and business services, and trade, transportation, and utilities — have added jobs above pre-pandemic levels. Connecticut’s per capita income of $82,918 is the third-highest in the country and, today is increasing the state’s minimum wage to $14 per hour. The state has recovered 83% of the jobs lost during Covid-19 and 3 industry sectors have rescued over 100% of the jobs lost.
Home prices are directly affected by demand, which, according to real estate experts, isn't going away anytime soon. However, they are not rising as quickly as they once did, and Connecticut real estate agents predict that prices will level off or rise slightly this year. Some of this is most likely due to rising interest rates.