housing market predictions for 2024: when will home prices be affordable again?
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By Robin Rothstein | Published on September 18, 2024
The housing market has yet to heat up this summer, but that may change soon.
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis on September 18, the first cut in over four years. One basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point. The mortgage-rate roller coaster ride appears to be over. Recently, rates have been behaving more like a water slide, moving downward with occasional plateaus and landing at their lowest levels since February 2023.
At the same time, inventory continues to loosen, slowing home price growth.
Despite these improvements, home prices continue to break records. Consequently, many buyers are likely waiting for further rate drops to improve affordability. However, experts caution against waiting too long.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025
U.S. home prices posted a 5.4% annual gain, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index three-month running average that ended in June.
Although this increase reflects a slowdown from the 5.9% annualized gain in May, the index still surpassed the record high set the previous month, indicating that home prices remain out of reach for many would-be buyers.
“The upward pressure on home prices is making this the most unaffordable housing market in history,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in an emailed statement.
Struvetant predicts that home prices will decline as we move into the later months of 2024 amid increasing inventory, but she sees no evidence of substantial declines in national home prices in 2024—or in 2025.
“Despite more leverage, buyers are still going to face a competitive market well into 2025 in most markets across the U.S. supply—while increasing—is still low by historical standards,” Sturtevant tells Forbes Advisor. “And there are few signs indicating a major drop in home prices.”
Though affordability obstacles persist, indicators suggest the market is beginning to tilt toward buyers to some extent. For instance, Zillow reports that roughly 25% of its listings saw price cuts in June. The last time the rate was this high for cuts this time of year was in 2018.
Can We Expect a Housing Market Recovery in 2025?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
Of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off, which seems promising given the recent declines. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 7% since the first week of June, landing at 6.09% in the week ending September 19.
During its September 18 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. Mortgage rates indirectly track this key interest rate banks use as an overnight lending guide. With the federal funds rate at its highest level in over two decades, would-be borrowers have felt the added impact on their ability to afford a home.
However, as mortgage rates continue their descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
He adds that returning mortgage rates to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, but he predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
As far as 2025 is concerned, Gumbinger says it’s a little too early to tell whether the housing market will be in better balance considering all the variables, such as whether or not mortgage rates decline and by how much, and how home prices react amid the unleashing of pent-up demand.
“I would think 2025 will be a better year for housing, but not a great year,” Gumbinger says. “[A]ffordability would only be improved somewhat, even with lower mortgage rates in place.”
NAR Practice Changes Are Underway: What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of high-profile antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers. The settlement also requires new rules to support a more transparent home-buying process.
The real estate industry trade group expects the practice changes to benefit “both consumers and agents by clarifying the financial aspects of real estate transactions.”
Though the final settlement approval hearing is scheduled for November, NAR implemented the new requirements on August 17.
Key Changes That Impact Buyers and Sellers
For decades, it was standard practice for the home seller to cover the buyer’s broker commission and include commission offers on the multiple listing services (MLS)–the private databases where local real estate brokers publish and share information about residential property listings.
However, the plaintiffs argued that this practice was a collusion scheme, contending that NAR and several real estate brokerages required sellers listing homes on the MLS to cover buyer broker commissions.
Consequently, the central settlement rule change prohibits broker compensation offers on the MLS.
Here are other changes buyers can expect:
Buyers must enter into a written agreement with any agent that uses an MLS that follows NAR’s rules before touring homes.
Buyers can negotiate how much commission to pay their agent or broker and for what services.
The buyer/broker written agreement must identify three elements:
How much compensation the buyer will pay their professional representative
This compensation specified in a dollar amount or as a percentage
Language confirming that the buyer’s representative cannot receive compensation exceeding the amount in the agreement
Here are other changes sellers can expect:
Sellers can negotiate with their listing broker how much to pay in commissions and for what services.
Sellers are free to have their listing broker offer cooperative compensation to buyer brokers off the MLS through other means, such as via social media, fliers, websites, phone calls and emails.
Sellers are free to offer buyer concessions on the MLS as long as the concessions are unrelated to compensating the buyer’s representative.
Despite the reforms, home shoppers can still attend open houses on their own, contact listing brokers and request information on properties, according to an NAR spokesperson.
How Will the New Rules Impact Affordability?
Now that buyers are more likely to be responsible for paying broker commissions, how concerned should hopeful homeowners be about home affordability in the wake of these changes?
“The greatest impact is going to be buyers that have fewer resources for down payment, closing costs and now the potential of buyer broker compensation,” Matt Side, director of broker development/owner at Realty ONE Group Eclipse in Spokane tells Forbes Advisor.
But the news rules may not only impact a buyer’s budget. Joel Hess, co-owner and managing broker of Realty ONE Group Professionals in Boise, notes that home shoppers, especially first-time buyers, may be shut out from segments of inventory they could have previously afforded.
“[A] buyer may not look at a home that’s otherwise perfect for them if they don’t have the cash available in their budget to pay compensation,” Hess tells Forbes Advisor.
Nonetheless, Side says buyers should know that sellers will continue offering compensation to the buyer representatives to increase accessibility and boost demand for their homes. Side also advises buyers to have upfront conversations with their lender and real estate agent to help them optimize the terms when negotiating a home purchase.
“Understanding what their limitations may be in purchasing will prepare them for a successful real estate transaction,” Side says.
Housing Inventory Forecast: When Will There Be Sufficient Supply To Reduce Prices?
Despite more resale and new homes entering the market, the inventory shortage remains well below the pre-pandemic average, according to a Freddie Mac report. Thanks to multiple headwinds, this severe deficit will likely remain for some time.
For one, many homeowners remain “locked in” at ultra-low mortgage rates, unwilling to exchange for a higher rate in a high-priced housing market. Consequently, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for the remainder of this year.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
New home construction has provided some relief, with inventory at its highest since early 2008. However, more than this welcome supply is needed to fill the inventory gap.
Still, while inventory is some 33% lower than pre-pandemic averages, there is a bright spot in the data—current inventory levels sit at their smallest deficit since fall 2020, according to Zillow analysis. Moreover, if mortgage rates continue trending downward, this could loosen the lock-in effect and add some much-needed inventory.
Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Home Builder Sentiment Ticks Down Again
Builder sentiment continues to wilt with the summer heat.
Affordability constraints resulting from still-high interest rates continue to dampen the outlook for new construction, with builder confidence dipping from 41 to 39 in July, according to the most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This reading marks the fourth consecutive month of downward movement and negative sentiment.
A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
Meanwhile, the construction of new homes, which had been on a tear, helping to fill the hole left by scant resale inventory, continues to sputter.
New single-family home permits fell slightly from June, by 0.1% and remain at their lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since May 2023 amid ongoing builder blahs, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Housing starts for single-family homes were down 14.1%, and completions rose only 0.5% from June. The average permit-to-completion time for a single-family home is slightly more than 10 months, according to NAHB.
Despite affordability headwinds, would-be new home buyers have reason to be optimistic: 33% of builders slashed prices in July to boost sales compared to 31% in June, the highest percentage 2024, according to an NAHB press statement. Moreover, 65% of builders were also open to offering incentives, the most since April 2019.
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
New and existing-home sales were up in July, but pending sales tell another story. Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Following a four-month slump, existing-home sales showed some signs of life, rising a modest 1.3% July, according to the latest report from NAR, even as the median home price increased by 4.2% to $422,600 compared to a year ago. Sales fell 2.5% compared to July last year.
A housing recovery—albeit a slow one—seems to be underway, thanks to interest rates starting to cool down.
“Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report. “But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.”
Also improving in slow fashion is inventory, which has been loosening since December.
The latest NAR data shows inventory ticked up slightly month-over-month by 0.8%, logging 1.33 million unsold homes at the end of July to settle at four months of inventory available at the current monthly sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market between four and six months.
New Home Sales
Meanwhile, new home sales rebounded compared to the previous month.
Amid rates slipping below 6.8% after cruising past 7% in the spring, July sales of newly constructed single-family houses jumped 10.6% compared to June sales and 5.6% from a year ago, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
“Homebuilders have been able to offer concessions, including mortgage rate buydowns, to help home buyers overcome affordability obstacles,” said Sturtevant, in an emailed statement.
However, Sturtevant notes that the new home market is starting to become outshined by the existing-home sector, which, with increasing inventory, provides more opportunities for buyers to negotiate.
Moreover, at $429,800 the median price for a new home is once again more expensive than the median existing-home price.
Pending Home Sales
Despite mortgage rates dipping this summer, early signs suggest that home sales may stall this fall, at least initially.
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index fell sharply in July, with contract signings declining in all four U.S. regions. The 5.5% drop produced the lowest index reading on record, even as it comes on the heels of a 4.8% increase in June that many hoped was the start of a favorable trend.
A pending home sale marks the point in the purchase transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms and is considered a leading indicator of a closed existing-home sale within the next one to two months.
Among the causes for this unrealized sales recovery is that home prices are still too high.
“The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election,” said Yun in a press statement.
Confusion surrounding the new rules resulting from the NAR settlement may also be deterring buyers awaiting further clarification.
While waiting to take the leap, Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, advises would-be buyers to use this time to set themselves up for success when they’re ready to come off the sidelines.
“Even if today’s market is out-of-range, buyers can start preparing for a home purchase by doing a bit of leg work, such as improving their credit score, to ensure they secure the lowest possible rate on a home loan,” Jones said.
Affordability Challenges Pour Cold Water on Summer Housing Market Activity: Will Fall Be Better for Buyers?
Despite home price growth showing clear signs of deceleration and mortgage rates inching down—year-over-year, affordability continues to erode, making it increasingly difficult for many low- and moderate-income prospective buyers to bear the cost of monthly mortgage payments.
In the week ending July 25, when mortgage rates were 6.78%, borrowers who put 20% down on a $422,600 median-priced resale home with a 30-year mortgage had to shell out a monthly mortgage payment of $2,199, not including property taxes and insurance.
However, someone who purchased a resale home a year ago is paying $2,117—or $82 less monthly.
Though home prices vary regionally, consumer finances are still too stretched for many to afford the commitment to homeownership, according to a First American Financial Corporation housing market trends report,
“Affordability has declined by more than 40 percent since February 2020 in all markets,” Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, writes in the report.
The latest NAR Housing Affordability Index underscores this ongoing, unaffordable housing environment, receding to a preliminary reading of 93.3 in June—the lowest reading this year. A national index reading below 100 indicates that a median-priced home is unaffordable for the typical family earning a median income.
First-time home buyers are the hardest hit, needing to earn close to $80,000 annually to afford a typical starter home, according to Redfin data. This income threshold is higher than a year ago and far higher than before the pandemic.
Yet, there is a glimmer of hope.
More starter homes are coming on the market, according to a Redfin report. This inventory spike is slowing the pace of starter home price growth compared to more expensive price tiers. The typical starter home costs $250,000 and has grown 4.2% since July 2023, while middle- and upper-price tiers rose 4.6% and 5%, respectively.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
What Experts Are Saying About a 2024 Foreclosure Crisis
Lenders began foreclosures on 21,870 properties nationwide in July, up 18% from the previous month and up 4% from a year ago, according to real estate data firm Attom.
Completed foreclosures also increased compared to the previous month, with real estate-owned properties, or REOs, increasing by 14%. Yet, REOs were down 2% from a year ago. REOs are homes that didn’t sell at foreclosure auctions, with mortgage lenders ultimately taking possession.
These monthly and annual increases follow a downward trend in the first half of 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023.
“July’s foreclosure activity reflects a slight shift in the housing market,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom, in the report. “Monitoring these next few months will help us better understand the implications for the real estate sector.”
Whatever patterns evolve in the coming months, experts generally don’t expect to see a foreclosure wave in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels and is still at about 70% of 2019 numbers,” says Sharga.
Sharga explains that a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.
Homeowners with mortgages saw a collective increase of $1.5 trillion in home equity, lifting total net homeowner equity to over $17 trillion in Q1 2024, the highest figure since late 2022, according to the latest CoreLogic home equity report.
Meanwhile, more homeowners are getting richer as home price growth surges. The percentage of equity-rich mortgages rose in 48 out of 50 states between Q1 and Q2 this year, according to Attom.
“For a homeowner in the early stage of foreclosure, that equity helps them avoid a foreclosure sale, either by leveraging the equity to pay down past due mortgage bills, or by selling their property in order to protect the equity they’d otherwise lose at the auction,” Sharga says.
Will 2024 or 2025 Be Better to Buy a Home?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down payment. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen in 2025, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Why Experts Advise Against Postponing Your Home Purchase Until 2025
Should hopeful buyers wait until 2025 to climb the ladder?
Divounguy says if you’re ready to buy a home, now is the best time.
“Competition for homes is a lot less frenzied than it has been—buyers today have more time to review their options, more leverage in negotiations and sellers are cutting prices at record-setting levels,” Divounguy says. “I think waiting for lower rates would be a mistake.”
Guminger agrees that waiting until 2025 for market conditions to improve may not be the best home-buying game plan since there are no guarantees.
“If 30-year mortgage rates should fall back to the mid-5% range by mid-year [2025], they will be the lowest in about three years at that point,” Gumbinger says. However, he cautions that lower mortgage rates in 2025 do not equate to a buyer’s market.
“Mortgage rates coming down an appreciable amount over a short time window might incite (or loosen pent-up) demand, and competition for properties would heat back up again.”